Demographic Bonus and Future Expectations

The negative paradigm regarding the large population has now shifted to an optimism. The large population is no longer considered a source of all problems but an opportunity to increase the economic strength of a region. In recent years, the term demographic bonus has become a topic that is often discussed in various media.

Demographic Bonus refers to a phenomenon of increasing the number of productive age population (15-64 years) which brings benefits to the economy of a region. This population group can be a driving force in the utilization of resources and technology so that economic output can increase.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in its publication entitled Analysis of the Indonesian Population Profile shows that there is a positive relationship between the percentage of the population of productive age and GRDP per capita. Provinces with a large composition of the productive age population tend to have large per capita GRDP values ​​as well. From year to year the population of Indonesia is always increasing. The latest from the results of the 2020 Population Census (SP2020) it is known that the number of people living in Indonesia is 271 million people. The increase in population in Indonesia is also followed by an increase in the number of productive age population. The SP2020 results show that Indonesia is dominated by a population aged 15-64 years with a percentage of 70.54 percent or around 189.7 million people. The dependency ratio also decreases as the productive age population increases.

Indonesia has a dependency ratio of 41 percent, which means that 100 young people cover 41 people of non-productive age. This figure is the lowest in the history of the Indonesian population. This small dependency ratio is also an indication that the productive age population can divert resources that were previously used to support the non-productive age population to other things in order to increase productivity which will ultimately affect the economy.

The decrease in the dependency ratio is also due to the decline in the birth rate in Indonesia. In 2020, Indonesia is able to reduce the national population growth rate to 1.25 percent. The facts above show that Indonesia is facing the best period in dealing with the Demographic Bonus. This should be utilized as much as possible so that Indonesia gains economic benefits from the addition of this productive age population. The Demographic Bonus in Indonesia itself is estimated to last until 2035. However, it should be noted that this increase in population only provides an opportunity. Bloom and Channing (2004) reveal that there is no automatic relationship between population growth and economic growth.

Positive or negative impacts that arise from the phenomenon of increasing the productive age population, depending on how the local government policies in an effort to absorb labor into the labor market.

Hope for the future

By looking at the journey of countries that have taken advantage of the demographic bonus phenomenon such as South Korea, Japan, and Singapore, there are several lessons that can be drawn, namely, increasing investment in education and health, expanding job participation, anticipating population aging early on and seeking equity. population distribution (Kominfo, 2014). The Covid-19 pandemic has taken the Indonesian education system by surprise since its inception.

There has been a shift in the way of learning from face to face to digital meetings. The high disparity in access to digital learning between regions exacerbates children's opportunities to get education. The Ministry of Education and Culture in its publication in 2021 stated that the Covid-19 pandemic had increased the dropout rate in Indonesia. The government must immediately be able to answer this challenge because to be able to reap the benefits of the demographic bonus, Indonesia must have a quality education system that is able to face Society 5.0. As many as 23 million jobs in Indonesia are expected to be replaced by machines by 2023 and as many as 27-46 million new jobs could be created in the same period (McKinsey, 2019). To deal with these changes requires new skills that should be obtained through the existing education system. Otherwise, Indonesia's productive population will not be able to compete in the future. The Indonesian government also needs to prepare generations to live long and healthy lives. According to the Ministry of Health (2021), the Covid-19 pandemic has caused a decline in the level of basic immunization for children, posyandu activities and puskesmas services. Ensuring that quality health services remain available and strengthening understanding of the importance of maintaining children's health from an early age, including maintaining health protocols during the Covid-19 pandemic are the main points so that the achievement of health targets can be managed optimally again.

The demographic bonus in Indonesia has not yet reached its peak, but Indonesia still needs to prepare for the aging population.

The increase in life expectancy, the decrease in the death rate as a result of the improvement in the health care system are the driving factors for population aging.

Aging of the population can have an impact on the country's economic slowdown through increasing dependency rates, decreasing public savings, and increasing government spending on health and pension costs (Mason et al 1995).

For this reason, it is necessary to prepare programs that are able to prepare the elderly to remain healthy, active, independent, and productive.

The uneven distribution of the population is the impact of regional development disparities. The greater the difference in development between regions, the wider the distance between the distribution of the population. Advanced regional development will be an attraction for residents of other regions to enter the region. Java Island, which has an economic contribution of 59 percent, is still an area with a strong attraction for residents outside the Java Island region to enter its territory (BPS, 2022). So that population distribution can be carried out, the government needs to make efforts to evenly distribute inter-island development so that the distribution of the population and the contribution of GRDP becomes more even. (Jambi/BPS data for West Tanjung Jabung Regency)